Nobody will disbelieve, but the epoch of the mass personal prognostication by mathematical models only begins and unknown, as it will cut (perekalechit) again the world. It is possible to begin Maja calendar, models for prognostication of eclipses, waves. And who knows today, how scientific prognostication of weather began – in the civilized society then talks about and weather were ahead of policy, economy, and who_with_whom. Today all of progressive humanity (PH) uses weather forecasts, and only insignificant part of PH knows about the mathematical models of prognostication of weather.
To attention of romanticies. As that one time one of authors in the field not far away saw a rainbow, walked up and saw: from the back of rainbow - only dampness. Rainbow it is position with which you look at the World.
Many topically tasks of prognostication at engineering approach (constructing of models) are taken to the conservative calculations. In this article three examples of models predictors are presented.
It seems to us that the «romantic» (where all incomprehensible) tasks of prognos-tication will disappear never. And even searching them is not necessary - they will get you.
Modest tasks are put in this article: you want to do and sell wooden stools (today here dominant influence of poisonous plastic and sawdusts) or at to purchase another aluminium factory and want to know business prospects.
By the way, in these examples scales of tasks different, and one essence – a model is needed for Your Task. We suppose that the use of model-predictor will be promoted by efficiency of activity of user.
We will begin presentation of the supposed «hybrid intellect» - man and models predictor with visual. In former epoches friend №1 of the man there was a horse, and frend #2 it is a dog.
Hybrid systems «rider-horse» gave elevating a mind and acceleration
So in dreams, and so in reality
Naturally, on this theme created the masses of myths and fairy-tales.
A “horse-горбунок” («Конёк-Горбунок» re-read?) fastened the tendency of evolution of myths: magic horse became all less than and all more clever – all the same people became less than to militate. you will look, what little horse drives such large Ivan-fool (picture on the left). Last of peat-time of evolution horse in the pocket of overcoat (picture on the right).
So in fairy-tales, and so along life
The last picture was done a long ago and so: to the American humour («secret adviser», picture from ancient Word) added the pair of strokes - got a «slavonic» variant.
Another fairy-tale characteristic is been a materials of the article - they are dangerous for people with high education, status and scientific achievements: can on him "svikhnut'sya" (= свихнуться).
Those, who suppose prognostication top magic or top mathematics, firmly will be disappointed - in the presented examples in some program some entrance information is entered and some processes settle accounts the program from the set initial state to optimum eventual.
Yet more sorrowful conclusion for statistical forecast - it is necessary not to catch and to guess, but create chances - to search prognostication of strategy of success and safety for an object . Such approach can be named "by active prognostication". In "applied" biznes-literature meets necessarily : not "optimize, that have, search new directions", not catch chances, but create them" ....
Ideal prediktor is "goldfish" - that for it will inquire, it will realize. It is translated into the language of practical idealism so: we search. we construct the model of the desired state, and then will realize him . But it rather for the "leaders of world proletariat".
In this article do we try to transform the model tasks of prognostication in the conservative tasks of class "when will a next eclipse be in my garden?".
But it is "Impossible to win and large victory at once - all must develop gradually" (Ya. Gashek Adventures of gallant soldier Shveyk). In folklor becomes firmly established done "quickly , and not quickly and fairy-tale tells soon ".
We will consider problems and tasks of prognostication step by step, translating them, on possibility in and category "Prognosis of sun eclipses", or, even, in and category weather "forecast ".
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